Resources & Blog

Jeff House
Posted: Tuesday, November 08, 2011

Is the Future Up, Down or Sideways?

Auguste Comte, one of the founders of sociology, coined the notion of “social physics” to describe how humans in society are analogous to molecules. The performance of one is unpredictable, but the behavior of many often falls into recognizable patterns. As a familiar example, physical gravity is colloquially used to describe human behavior; “what goes up must come down” applies as well to the stock market as to Newton’s apple.

Simple graphs use the social physics analogy to illustrate how your community might have changed and will change as time goes by. We may not be able to describe the future in words, but we have an intuitive vision of where we are and how things will change. If members of a group hold different visions, agreeing on direction and action can be difficult. Because these graphs are abstractions they may evade personal agendas, entrenched positions or even shyness that can distort purely verbal discussions.

This quick and easy exercise is based on two principles of physics.
• Nothing lasts forever in its present state without the application of energy.
• All things tend toward disorder.

Where are you now? Where are you heading?

1. Think about your community’s ability to compete in the market place and/or achieve its mission.
2. Pick one graph that you think best illustrates your community’s past and future.
3. As shown in the example, place a large dot on the horizontal axis that shows where your community is now on the graph you chose.

  
   
Where is your competition?

1. Select your strongest competition.
2. Think about their ability to affect your ability to your strategic goals.
3. Pick the graph that best illustrates your strongest competitor.
4. For that graph, place a large dot on the horizontal axis that shows where the competitor is now.

After people have placed their dots, compare which graphs they chose and where they placed their dots.  Ask each team member to think about these questions or other questions that are relevant to your community. 

Things to talk about

1. Are your future prospects positive or negative?
2. How much time do you have to work on your goals?
3. Will changes in your competitor’s future have a positive or negative effect on your community?
4. What characteristics explain your assessment of the current condition and the outcome you expect?
5. How much of the future can you control? How much of the change is due to external factors and how much is due to internal factors?
6. If your forecast is positive, what steps and resources are necessary to assure you stay on track? If negative, what do you need to do to reverse the direction? What characteristics must be changed and what must be preserved? Does your community have the resources to do what is necessary?

If you would like to receive larger copies of the complete set of graphs please email jhouse@retirementdynamics.com.